Advanced Search

Journal Navigation

Journal Home

Subscriptions

Archive

Contact Us

Table of Contents

Click here for more information

Sign In to gain access to subscriptions and/or personal tools.
The Journal of Environment & Development
This Article
Right arrow Full Text (PDF)
Right arrow Supplemental Data
Right arrow References
Right arrow Alert me when this article is cited
Right arrow Alert me if a correction is posted
Services
Right arrow Email this article to a friend
Right arrow Similar articles in this journal
Right arrow Alert me to new issues of the journal
Right arrow Add to Saved Citations
Right arrow Download to citation manager
Right arrowRequest Permissions
Right arrow Request Reprints
Right arrow Add to My Marked Citations
Citing Articles
Right arrow Citing Articles via Google Scholar
Right arrow Citing Articles via Scopus
Google Scholar
Right arrow Articles by Fonkych, K.
Right arrow Articles by Lempert, R.
Right arrow Search for Related Content
Social Bookmarking
Add to CiteULike   Add to Complore   Add to Connotea   Add to Del.icio.us   Add to Digg   Add to Reddit   Add to Technorati   Add to Twitter  
What's this?

Assessment of Environmental Kuznets Curves and Socioeconomic Drivers in IPCC’s SRES Scenarios

Kateryna Fonkych

RAND and Pardee RAND Graduate School

Robert Lempert

Pardee RAND Graduate School

The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) produced families of 21st century greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trajectories that aim to be consistent with current knowledge and span a wide range of plausible futures. This study performs a standard econometric analysis on the simulation model outputs from six SRES scenarios to assess the extent to which the projected CO2 and NOx emissions reflect Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) behavior. Consistent with the empirical literature, which offers little consensus on the predictive value of the EKC hypothesis, our analysis finds that some SRES scenarios exhibit EKC behavior while others do not. Those showing EKC behavior have turning points—per captia income levels separating rising and falling emissions—similar to those found in empirical studies. Overall, this analysis supports the SRES scenarios as generally consistent with and spanning a wide range of different interpretations found in the EKC literature.

Key Words: environmental Kuznets curve • climate change • emissions scenarios • SRES scenarios

The Journal of Environment & Development, Vol. 14, No. 1, 27-47 (2005)
DOI: 10.1177/1070496504273513
Add to CiteULike CiteULike   Add to Complore Complore   Add to Connotea Connotea   Add to Del.icio.us Del.icio.us   Add to Digg Digg   Add to Reddit Reddit   Add to Technorati Technorati   Add to Twitter Twitter    What's this?