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The Journal of Environment & Development
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Probabilistic Modeling of Sulfur and Nitrogen Pollution Controls and Their Relations With Income

W. Pepper

ICF Consulting

A. Sankovski

ICF Consulting

J. Leggett

Climate Change Division of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

The objective of this article is to evaluate (via modeling) the impact of different pollution control scenarios on the shape of the income-emissions relationship. The simulation of emissions and emission controls was conducted using the Climate Change Risk Assessment Framework, which projects SO2 and NOxemissions from energy consumption and conversion and non-energy sources. The analysis of resulting scenario-, region-, and gas-specific income-emission curves suggests that income alone as a model driver of future emissions cannot adequately capture all plausible future SO2 or NOx emission pathways, or important differences among regions in those trajectories. Future social choices regarding the degree and strategy for environmental protection introduce large uncertainties in future projections and result in differing relationships between income and emissions. The analysis also suggests that the inverted-U shape (hypothesized Environmental Kuznets Curve) is only one of several plausible forms of the future relationship between income and emissions.

Key Words: emission controls • probabilistic • income • pollution • projections

The Journal of Environment & Development, Vol. 14, No. 1, 197-219 (2005)
DOI: 10.1177/1070496504273611
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