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The Journal of Environment & Development
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The Role of Technology Management in the Dynamics of Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Household Energy Use in Sub-Saharan Africa

Robert Bailis

Energy and Resources Group at the University of California, Berkeley

Majid Ezzati

Harvard School of Public Health

Daniel M. Kammen

Energy and Resources Group and in the Goldman School of Public Policy at the University of California, Berkeley

The authors analyzed the dynamics of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from household fuel use in sub-Saharan Africa from 2000 to 2050. The scenarios included a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, in which fuel consumption and tree-harvesting practices change little except through population growth and urbanization, and large-scale shifts to charcoal- and petroleum-based fossil fuels. The authors also considered the role of charcoal production technologies and sustainability of biomass harvesting. GHG emissions from the various scenarios varied by a factor of 4, with the lowest emissions in the BAU fuel-use scenario with charcoal production and sustainable biomass harvesting and the highest in the charcoal fuel scenario without sustainable harvesting and charcoal production. In only two scenarios, those with sustainable biomass harvesting and charcoal production, the emissions had an inverted-U pattern. Therefore, an inverted-U pattern was highly dependent on technology and policy instruments.

Key Words: greenhouse gas emissions • household energy • sub-Saharan Africa • scenario forecasting • Environmental Kuznets Curve • biomass energy • charcoal

The Journal of Environment & Development, Vol. 14, No. 1, 149-174 (2005)
DOI: 10.1177/1070496504273651
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